Monolith Research
In plain terms
A company’s imports happen before it reports. Customs bill-of-lading records log the containers arriving for each named importer — so import volume can be read weeks ahead of an earnings print.
How it works
Importers are matched to listed companies, and the equity cross-section is ranked by how each name’s container flow is accelerating or fading — long the accelerating, short the fading. The academic version (Jain–Wu) reports a 6–9.6% annual effect.
What it’s tested against
The pipeline is unit-tested for point-in-time correctness: a planted signal is recovered at t = 15.7, a placebo fails as it should, and a two-month lag shows no leakage. In sample it clears the firm’s deflation bar at a Deflated Sharpe of 0.77 across the 15 trials behind it.
Data
Customs bill-of-lading / trade-flow records; a survivorship-correct US-equity panel.
Funding-grade — the effect is real and replicates; a firm-level manifest panel is the gating cost, not the signal.